Agenda item

To consider an update on the Primary Care Modelling Project.

8.1       Rosalyn King (Director of Health Outcomes, NHS Central London Clinical Commissioning Group) introduced the report and advised that NHS Central London CCG was seeking to appoint an analyst to work on modelling the data obtained and progress was expected to be made on this in the next few months. It was hoped that there would be sufficient financial resources in 2016/17 to support the project.

8.2       Damien Highwood (Evaluation and Performance Manager) then informed Members that the care models had been presented to the London boroughs in January 2016, following a request from the Greater London Authority (GLA). The Council and other London boroughs also had the possibility of using WITAN, a city planning platform and demographic modelling tool that had been developed for the GLA. The Council was working with the GLA to see ways in which its models could be used in areas such as migration assumptions and in anticipating where new housing would be built, including the specific wards. Potentially this may also include details of the type of housing being developed. Damien Highwood added that the demographic models being developed were able to provide figures, however it was hoped that in future they would also be able to identify future needs. Mike Robinson commented that models were developing well and work would focus on forecasting key outcomes.

8.3       Rianne Van Der Linde (Public Health Analyst) then gave a presentation updating Members on progress in primary care modelling. She advised that 71% of Central London CCG registered patients were in its catchment area, 14% in NHS West London CCG’s, 6% in Hammersmith and Fulham CCG’s and 12% within other London CCG’s catchment area. Rianne Van Der Linde advised that a patient survey undertaken in 2012-13 to identify the reasons why patients registered outside their catchment area had shown that 33% had done so because it was convenient to them, 26% had moved home and did not want to change practice, 23% had moved to the area but registered with a GP out of the catchment area, whilst 14% were dissatisfied with the practice in their area or they wanted a specific service or a particular GP. The next steps would involve analysing past trends in individual level data of NHS Central London CCG’s registered population by age, sex and place of residence and developing a GP registered based primary care forecasting model.

8.4       Members enquired whether data was available on the number of patients registered under multiple identities and the reasons why 5% of the population in Westminster were not registered with GPs. Clarification was sought as to whether the models of care were being developed for NHS Central London CCG only or for the whole of Westminster. A Member commented that some of the patients who for example attend St. Mary’s Hospital Accident and Emergency department may differ considerably to those who took part in the patients survey. It was also asked whether polling district specific data could be drawn up and if was possible to determine the percentage of residents who are registered with GPs by postcode.

8.5       In reply to the issues raised, Mike Robinson stated that the percentage of patients with multiple IDs was not known and this would be difficult to calculate, however sharing information with other organisations may assist. Rianne Van Der Linde advised that the 5% of residents not registered with GPs could be attributable to the high flow of migration in Westminster. Damien Highwood added that the percentage of unregistered residents may actually be higher, however the figure set was influenced by how the City Survey was undertaken. Rosalyn King commented that it may be possible to calculate the percentage of residents registered with GPs by postcode.

8.6       The Chairman confirmed that the models of care were for the whole of Westminster and the project was overseen by the Board. She advised that although the GLA had expressed interest in using the models, NHS Central London and NHS West London CCGs and the tri-borough local authorities felt that it was better at this stage to continue independently joint development of the models.

RESOLVED:

1.            That progress on the primary care modelling project be noted; and

2.         That the close collaboration between the Council’s and the Clinical Commissioning Groups’ officers be noted and that it be agreed to provide continued support for the project.